With less than 200 nautical miles left to the finish line at Pointe-à-Pitre and 53 of them to be raced around the west side if the island - through what will be a nerve shredding minefield of local calms and sudden changes in wind strength and direction - there are just 15 minutes between leader Thomas Ruyant (LinkedOut) and Charlie Dalin (Apivia)
And Jérémie Beyou (Charal 2) is poised to pounce in third if and when the leading duo slow.
The winner is expected at the finish line between 0500hrs and 1000hrs UTC Monday morning but no amount of weather routing modelling can predict which solo skipper will win.
The closest previous finish was in 2006 when Roland Jourdain won by 28 minutes ahead of Jean Le Cam.
And in this situation, trying to stay out of the calms and in the best breeze through the darkness of a sultry Caribbean night most skippers would rather be the hunter than the hunted. The three leading boats will be very evenly matched in lighter airs.
Ruyant has bigger headsails if there is upwind work at all and has won into
Guadeloupe three times in different races and classes. Dalin is a wily, smart many times podium finisher on La Solitaire du Figaro and is unbeaten in the IMOCA this year but is on his first ever Route du Rhum. And if he can get close enough three times La Solitaire champion Beyou might spring the big surprise.
Ruyant and Dalin are in sight of each other, certainly on AIS, and will watch each other like a hawk. Both will be trying to be as rested as possible to be lucid for the last long night.
Dalin, who has been even quieter than his usual taciturn self - and may yet reveal damage or a missing sail – asserted “Everything’s fine and I’m back within sight of Thomas who is about five miles south. There are a lot of squalls and the wind is changing all the time with gusts up to 38 knots, so we had to work hard during the night. It is not easy to get any sleep in these conditions. I’m pleased to have caught up with Thomas”.
The other sailors are also closely watching this thrilling duel at the front of the fleet. “I think it’s fantastic. The battle between Thomas and Charlie is really incredible.” Isabelle Joschke (MACSF) added, “I’m pleased that it is going like this all the way to the finish. It’s nice to see the leading pack grouped together with Justine (Mettraux) in amongst them. It’s great to see that.”
The winner may well smash the race record for an Imoca held since 2014 by François Gabart (with a time of 12 days, 4 hours, 38 minutes and 55 seconds).
The race continues for 34 of the 38 skippers that set off from Saint-Malo eleven days ago. Antoine Cornic (Human Immobilier) revealed that he collided with a UFO a few days ago leading to a serious crack developing in his keel head. He remains in the race, but has to be even more vigilant.
In the Top 5, Paul Meilhat (Biotherm) has also had some technical problems. “Part of the seal around the sail hold hatch split and I spent hours emptying hundreds of litres of water out of the bow section. It feels like I’ve been living in a foot spa for the last couple of days. With the hull so unstable because of this, I have swerved off course a few times. But for now, it’s under control.”
Britain’s Pip Hare is trying to deal with the stress and nerves of a close race in her mid fleet group. Lying 12th this afternoon, the Medallia skipper who is having to sail with one reef in her mainsail because of a hole in it said, “I am up and down a lot. But I am going to sail as hard as I can no matter what.”
Asked how much difference the lost mainsail power will make she responded, “ Tactically towards the end it will but right now I am in a drag race. What I need to do is keep this boat going as fast as I can and try and make good decisions. When the breeze is up at 20kts I am fine but as soon as it drops below that I struggle with power. I have pushed as hard as I could on the big gennaker but I was so outside the range of it, but I have changed it down now because I don’t need to blow that up. And so now I feel like I am so off the pace.”
And her 24 year old rookie compatriot James Harayda in 18th has been having a great IMOCA debut on Gentoo: “I had news this morning that we are the fastest boat in the flee over 24 hours which is a good sign and I am sailing in the right direction as well so it is all good, very positive.”
Hare is expecting to finish during the night of Tuesday into Wednesday.